© Stan Szeto-USA Today Sports

The Giants won a franchise-record 107 games last year, after which the Dodgers reloaded after being eliminated from the division series. But since posting a 14-7 record at the end of April, things haven’t gone their way. Although they returned from a late-six-game losing streak against the Diamondbacks on Wednesday night, they have dropped 12 of their last 16 games, mainly against sub-500 teams. As the season’s midway point approaches, they are at 41-39 at Jemtem.500, and what’s more, they recently lost their most popular hitter, Evan Longoria, with a slanted strain.

How Longoria was injured is not clear in this writing, but still losing him is a shock. The 36-year-old third baseman is hitting .242 / .331 / .462 with eight home runs; Its 123 wRC + giants are fourth in the regulars. Two weeks before his injury, as the team struggled, he hit a team-high 166 wRC + (.316 / .413 / .553) with three of those eight homers.

Longoria missed the first 30 games of the season due to torn ligament repair surgery in his right index finger, making it the fifth season in a row that he has been dropped from the injury list. Last year, he was limited to 81 games due to an injury to his left shoulder and right arm. In 2020, he lost the first seven games of the season due to skewed tension; He reportedly pinched his right side muscle while swinging on July 14 that year, and on July 30 he was back in the lineup. Speaking in mild terms of his current tensions, manager Gabe Kepler gave the same optimism that it would not last long स्थिती the absence of a deadline, although Longoria is at least out of the all-star break.

Longoria recently admitted that he is considering retirement this season, when his six-year, 100 million contract expires; The Giants have a पर्याय 13 million club option with a 5 million purchase. “I didn’t decide,” he said San Francisco ChronicleOf Susan Slaser last week. “It’s like a few days, I feel good and I think I can play for another five years. And then there are the days where I come here and I think I’m 100 years old and I think, ‘That’s it.’

Longoria’s defeat to IL comes a day after Brandon Crawford returned from a 10-day stint due to a left knee injury. The move related to Shortstop’s return is the placement of Catcher Kurt Casali on IL with a slanted strain, while the move related to Longoria’s placement is the recall of Catcher Joy Bart from Triple-A Sacramento, where he was selected about four weeks ago. To mentally reset and adjust its swing. Bart hit an RBI double in the fifth inning (initially deciding before the review that a fan catching the ball on a three-run homer intervened) which helped Wednesday’s comeback from a 4-0 first defeat against Diamondbacks.

The potential fill-in for Longoria is David Villar, a 25-year-old former 11th-round pick who hit .284 / .409 / .633 with 21 homers but had a 27.0% strikeout rate at 281 PA in Sacramento. Villar is currently ranked 31st on the team’s list of top prospects; Here’s what Eric Longenhagen wrote about him on board when he assigned him 40 FV grade:

Villar has amassed huge numbers in both the Double-A Richmond and Triple-A Sacramento over the past two years and is expected to play a power-over-hit corner role for the Giants for the next several seasons. There have been repeated attempts on him on a second base in the 2022 season but in reality he is a corner-only infield fit. Villar must have enough all-field power to fit into the lefty-mashing corner roll.

Longoria was doing well in the struggles of the Giants, and oh, how they have been struggling lately, despite Wednesday’s comeback. After losing to the Pirates at PNC Park on June 18, they lost three of their next four games by walk-off hits, one in Pittsburgh (currently 33-48) and two in Atlanta, while three of the four lost to the Braves (49). -34). They returned home and dropped two of three in the Reds (28-53), split a pair with the Tigers (34-47) and then swept the three-game series by the White Sox (39-41) before the trip. Arizona and two of the three left on Diamondback (37-45). The record is 4-12 against teams with a weighted win percentage of .467; Within three weeks, their playoff odds have dropped by more than 25 percent:

Veteran changes to playoff odds

Date W. L. W% GB Win Div Clinch by Clinch WC Playoff WS won
June 18 37 27 .578 3 13.0% 11.5% 55.9% 68.8% 4.6%
July 6 41 39 .512 10.5 2.0% 1.6% 39.6% 416% 2.1%
Change -11.0% -9.9% -16.3% -27.2% -2.5%

On both sides of the ball, the Giants seem to have fallen victim to the regression monster after several exceptional performances last year. For example, consider the fortunes of 12 veterans who created at least 100 wRC + in 200 PA last year:

Comparison of 2021-22 Giants

Oops! With Pose retiring and both Solano and Bryant moving into free agency, only four of the nine returning were as good as last year, while four more have dropped close to replacement levels, one (Wade) and almost two are missing. One and a half months due to left knee strain and one before dealing with Rangers (Dugger). Collectively, these dozens produced 123 WRC + last year, while homing in at an average of 4.4 Wars per 650 PA and 4.3% of their plate appearances. The nine return masses have dropped to 107 wRC + and are homing in at an average of 2.2 WAR per 650 PA (more than half!) And 3% of their plate appearance.

Fortunately for the Giants, free agent Jock Pederson (.269 / .339 / .557, 147 wRC +) and Dhuki Luis Gonzalez (.302 / .361 / .447, 128 wRC +) have helped overcome some of these recessions. The same cannot be said for Bart, alas; He hit just .156 / .296 / .300 (79 wC +) before being demoted, and the team’s wRC + on catchers has dropped from 89 to 89 from the POS-powered 125, with Casali and newcomer Austin Vince also taking the rips. The first base, where Belt, Roof, Wade, Flores and others gathered last year for the major league-best 158 ​​wRC +, has dropped to 100, the Major’s ninth-worst mark. The belt, which was limited to 97 games by different IL stunts for oblique strain, right knee fracture and left thumb fracture last year, has missed time again this year, with the COVID-19 ascent causing the first seven games and 23 more further burns in the same knee – and this time lifting others to lethargy. Did not come.

Still, the Giants ’offense is slightly lower than in 2021, with 4.96 runs per game (second in the NL) and 108 wRC + (first) 4.47 runs per game (fifth) with 104 wRC + (sixth)). They have slipped even further on the run restriction side, where after allowing 3.67 runs per game last year (second in the NL), they are producing 4.45 per game this year (ninth). By attesting to the corresponding rankings between ERA- (101, ninth) and FIP- (90, equals third), a good portion of the blame falls on their defense.

The Giants’ .676 defensive performance is the NL’s second worst, their -22 DRS fourth-worst and their 126 fielding runs last in the Prevented (RAA) Major. Crawford and Longoria are a big part of the problem based on the metrics (accepted in a smaller sample). Crawford has crashed from 6 DRS and 12 RAA to -7 DRS and -3 RAA, while Longoria has dropped from -1 DRS to -5 and from -5 DRS to -14 as the team’s third baseman in the group. The work of Pederson, Gonzalez, and Roof has reduced the left field from 0 DRS and -1 RAA to -17 DRS and -8 RAA together.

Last year’s rotation, which ranks third in the NL in both ERA- and FIP- (based on both 85, 3.44 ERA and 3.43 FIP), actually leads FIP- in the league this year (by 83, 3.13 marks), but thanks to that protection, They have only 97 ERA- (3.91 ERA), which is seventh. The unit has experienced some turnover, with staff officers Kevin Gossman and Johnny Queto both leaving through free agency, replaced by Carlos Rodon and Alex Cobb, respectively. The former is exceptional (2.87 ERA, 2.83 FIP) so that it ranks fourth in the 3.2 WAR Major (Gossman is first with 3.7 for the Blue Jays), while the latter has fallen victim to trivial defenses; It has .348 BABIP permitted but only 4.1% barrel rate and its 2.51 xERA and 3.07 FIP are miles better than its 4.74 ERA.

Logan Webb has played the same game as last year, but holdover Alex Wood has had to face the same fate as Cobb by .336 BABIP; Its 3.44 FIP and 3.85 xERA are both in some whiskers of last year’s figures, such as its 5.6% barrel rate, but its ERA has risen sharply from 3.83 to 4.83. Meanwhile, Anthony Desclafani, who started just five of his best seasons last year (3.17 ERA, 3.62 FIP, 3.0 WAR) said he needed season-end surgery to repair a subluxed peroneal tendon to his right. Scam

In addition to the defense, Bullpen has lost the biggest performance, owning the best ERA- (74) and second-best FIP- (92) in the league last year; They are now third in ERA- (107) and ninth in FIP- (99). Palooka (6.64 ERA, 4.04 FIP) from Jake McGee reliable close (2.72 ERA, 3.05 FIP, 31 savings); His barrel rate has doubled from 6.5% to 13.9% and he is ranked ninth by Camilo Doval. Tyler Rogers’ ERA has doubled from 2.22 to 4.74, even though its FIP and barrel rates have dropped significantly. Dominic Leon has surpassed 1.51 ERA and 3.08 FIP to 3.64 ERA and 3.75 FIP. Jose Alvarez’s ERA has doubled from 2.37 to 5.28 and its barrel rate has quintupled from 2.4% to 12.0%. I was able to move on.

Without some over-efficiency and some magic you can’t win 107. Last year’s Giants seemed to specialize in late-inning heroics, as they went 31-46 (.403) in a game they drew or trailed in the seventh inning; In that segment, they are 8-45 (.178) this year. It shouldn’t be too surprising that they couldn’t replicate their 2021 recipe; As the August 2 trade deadline approaches, the question is whether they can beat the Dodgers in the NL West race (not as likely as the playoff odds shown above) but whether they can keep themselves consistent for this from their current hurdles. Playoff hunt of the year.