The United States has suffered a week-long defeat at the hands of China in the war on Taiwan, and preparations need to be made “immediately,” a leading expert said.
The Oriana Skyler Maestro, authorized by China’s military and U.S. Air Force strategists, comes after years of simulations depicting America’s crushing defeat.
China considers Taiwan part of its territory and has promised to forcibly integrate it with the mainland if necessary, while Joe Biden recently promised that the United States would protect the island.
Taiwan is effectively an independent country, although it is not recognized internationally, but any move towards full independence will almost certainly lead to war.
If that happened, Skyler Maestro called it “the worst situation and the most difficult situation for the United States.”
And a few years of simulation has led to the US losing the war with China – some war games Beijing is showing a “ring ring” around them.
Skyler Maestro describes the war, which began with a war of “huge missiles” fired by China.
The attack removes the only effective air base in the region, and a week later concludes that Chinese troops could safely lose the US “exactly” in the war on Taiwan.
Skyler Maestro explains that the attack on Kadena on the Japanese island of Okinawa may have resulted in a “disability” within “hours” of the loss of “60 percent of the aircraft.”
What happens next is that the air defense is again targeted by missiles at Taiwan, followed by a major amphibious attack, she said.
They will also attack Taiwan’s political targets “surrender to leadership”.
When the United States moves to defend Taiwan, China will launch cyber attacks to disable communications, especially satellites.
The deadline for this first phase is “If everything goes according to plan, everything I just proposed, it will probably be three days”.
China’s goal is not to fight a protracted war with the still technically superior United States “whatever it loses” but to occupy Taiwan would represent victory.
“If they took Taiwan before the United States fought, would they have defeated the United States?” She said.
“They may still have an inferior army and yet they are capable of doing it.
“They know that if we can stop them from landing for two to three weeks before the US Pacific forces arrive in full force, they are in crisis, then they can lose.
“If they can get shoes on the ground in Taiwan in a week, it’s over.
“And once they get there, the United States can do nothing to get them out.
“We are not ready to fight a war at the level needed to get them out of the island.”
Why is Taiwan a flashpoint between the US and China?
The dispute over Taiwan returned to the Chinese Civil War, which ended in 1949 with the victory of the Communist Party’s Mao Zedong.
Taiwan – with a population of only 22 million – was known as the government of China until 1971 when the mainland gained a place in the United Nations.
China’s ousted leader Chiang Kai-shek, backed by the United States, fled to the island of Taiwan, about 100 miles off the mainland coast, with his defeated army.
Taiwan has since developed an identity of its own and has become a prosperous democracy with close ties to the West, especially the US.
The ultimate goal of the party, led by current President Tsai Ingwen, is independence.
But China considers the island part of its territory and has promised to forcibly reunite it if necessary.
Opinion on freedom is also widely seen as a trigger for war.
For that, China is spending billions to modernize its military, including building a fleet of aircraft carriers to compete with the US Navy.
This has led to a clash with the United States, the country’s main arms supplier.
President Joe Biden recently said the United States would defend Taiwan if attacked by China.
Tensions have been rising in recent years as US air and naval forces patrol the seas around Taiwan, sparking outrage from China.
While Chinese warplanes regularly attack the island, they have begun training to attack.
The new book, Defending Taiwan, by foreign policy experts Hal Brands and Michael Beckley, also outlines the situation of a missile attack.
Brand and Beckley warn that the “most worrying” situation is that Beijing is trying to launch a “surprise missile attack” on US troops in Asia.
China has significantly improved its military in recent years, spending billions to meet President Xi Jinping’s goal of catching up with the United States by 2027.
It recently launched 100,000 aircraft carriers, the first to match the strength of the U.S. Navy.
Past war games have shown that the US can lose the war with China.
At an event last year, the Red team played the role of Chinese disabled US Communications in the winning process.
It was a “ring run” around their opponents, the vice president of Joint Chiefs of Staff General John Highten.
In 2019, the US got “his ass in his hands” in a war game played by the RAND Corporation think-tank.
But Skyler Maestro says years of war games have highlighted “significant insecurity”, yet the US is not yet fully aware of the challenges.
One of the problems is the failure to persuade allies in the region to deploy US warplanes and missiles to match China.
The ability to quickly increase weapons production and the shortage of ammunition in the region are also issues that need to be addressed, says Skyler Maestro.
“How much should we care about preparation? Very careful.
“As long as I’m doing this, these insecurities are known – 20 years.
“As much as people talk about the urgency of dealing with them, I don’t see that urgency in practice.”
“Right now we can’t persuade South Koreans to use American troops there.”
But as the United States seeks to increase its readiness, Beijing’s determination to invade Taiwan remains unclear.
“China is determined to take back Taiwan. There are people who would have thought otherwise if they thought the Russians were hanging out when they were gathering troops on the Ukrainian border.
“This is the number one goal of the Communist Party and what its military is for.
“If you listen to rhetoric and think they won’t do it, you don’t know China.”